What’s with the GOP? Are they just TRYING to lose this election? Or are they so over-confident about beating Obama that they think they don’t have to try? I have to wonder. When their best bet is a wimp-ass like Mitt Romney, I just can’t stop rolling my eyes. In fact, I get dizzy just typing his name.
I have a candidate or two I like, but I’m sure not in love yet. I understand the enthusiasm some folks have for Sarah Palin, but if Hillary was too polarizing to win, Sarah is a lost cause already. Sure, she can energize a crowd of supporters, but she can also fan the cold embers of Obama’s disillusioned followers into a raging fire of Progressive voter turnout like no other Republican. If she runs, and that’s unknown at this writing, she probably won’t get the nomination for that very reason. I suspect she knows this. The opposition to her is just too damn strong. It more than negates her vote-getting power. Even if the Republican stalwarts turn out in droves to vote for her, the Obamites will turn out even more than they did in 2008. But I must confess, just knowing how much they hate her makes me want her to head the Republican ticket!
So who else have they got?
Herman Cain? Hmmm. He’s interesting, but he does not have the credentials we need in a leader any more than Obama does, and I frankly hate the whole concept of putting forth a black candidate to take on a black incumbent just because he’s black. It just irks me on the lack of merits. After four years of the Race Card, I’m sick to death of it. It should never have been an issue to start with.
And I think most of us could not be happier that Newt Gingrich self-destructed so early in the game. Now, would somebody please tell him?
Tim Pawlenty. Sorry, he bores me too much to bother…
Jon Huntsman is a dream candidate for many Centrists and ex-pat Democrats, so that would go a long way, it would seem, in bridging the political divide. Unfortunately, he has taken a pacifistic approach, apparently trying to out-McCain McCain, suggesting that the election doesn’t have to be mean, low-down, and dirty. I know Jesus admonished us to turn the other cheek, but you can bet the mortgage that the Obama camp won’t be pulling any punches. And I don’t think he’s outspoken enough about what exactly he has to offer as President besides quiet diplomacy. That was Obama’s schtick in 2008, and it was ridiculed then as it should be now.
I’ve heard it postulated that the Republican Party really does want to lose this election so they can run Jeb Bush in 2016. If this is true, I hope the Mayan calendar is right. The world should end in 2012 if that’s the case. In fact, if Obama wins re-election, it probably will!
There is also a popular theory that the Republicans are prone to giving their old war-horses their “turn” at leading the party. Like in 1996, it was Bob Dole’s turn. In 2008, it was John McCain’s turn. But I suspect that is only true when they expect to lose, or want to lose, and I strongly don’t believe they want to lose this time, nor do they have any reason to expect to lose. Even if the polls showed Obama consistently beating a Republican rival, I’d be very suspicious of those polls for a variety of reasons.
In 2008, the election polls were very close between Obama and McCain until the financial crisis hit. I heard from several sources that many people felt Obama and the Democrats were the better bet for dealing with the economic meltdown, that a change at the top was needed. So, according to this theory, Independents swung to Obama and Republicans stayed home on Election Day. If this is true, then Republicans should be very optimistic about unseating him if the economy stays like it is.
But for the Republicans to beat Obama, they have to not only get a good Republican turnout, they have to win over the Independents, and they have to hope the Democrats become as complacent as the Republicans were in 2008. I know the conservatives want to put forward a truly conservative candidate for a number of reasons – to fire up their own kind, to offer a starkly contrasting political view, etc.. But truly conservative candidates rarely win over the Independent voters, and there are more of them now than there have been in recent memory, maybe more than ever in the USA. So if the Republicans want to win over these Independent voters, they need a relatively Centrist candidate. I really don’t think many Republican voters will be complacent and stay home this election like they did with McCain. And if they want disillusioned Democrats to stay home on Election Day, they can’t risk having a staunch Conservative heading their ticket.
I believe in the truth of the old adage that “people vote their pocketbooks,” so that leads me to think the Republicans have a strong advantage in unseating Obama this election, since this economic mess shows no signs of healing itself. I suspect that may be part of what is driving them to put Romney in front. Economics is his strong suit.
While Conservatives may dislike him because of the Massachusetts healthcare issue, it does have a neutralizing effect on that controversy. The Dems sure can’t throw it in his face if he doesn’t make it a campaign issue himself. I know the Republicans made it a big deal that they were going to overturn that piece of legislation, but the reality is that’s not going to happen. And as much as it irks Republicans, and even though the healthcare legislation was poorly written and poorly legislated, overturning an entitlement like that is a losing proposition. It needs to be modified, of course, but I’m afraid it’s going to remain. I really don’t see a political advantage for the Republicans to run on that hot-potato issue.
So all things considered, as it stands now, it looks like Romney is the guy to beat. The question remains, can he beat Obama. Most pundits seem to think the GOP needs a stronger candidate, and I agree. But I can definitely see why Romney is the front-runner so far.
On the other hand, it reminds me of where Hillary was positioned four years ago.
Mitt best be looking over his shoulder.